The reality of CAT "Analysis" by "Experts"

Today, a good friend and colleague, mukti and I were discussing reactions of CAT aspirants to their performance in the CAT-2010. Not surprisingly, the reactions were extreme.

Some (though admittedly only few) feel ecstatic because they have done well and can smell the call; others feel dejecetd to the extent that instinctively they feel like giving in, having decided that they would NOT receive a call. In the words of mukti "there is no one who seems to be in the middle".

Let me be flat on this - both reactions are irrational. Period. 

Yeah !! I can explain. What is the basis of such reactions of ecstacy or dejection. The analysis and judgement provided by so called "CAT experts" including "yours truly". But believe me, this is a very poor basis for making such judgements. Here is why?

How do you think the "experts" analyse and predict the required cutoffs for IIM calls etc. (and I include myself in the list). Well the best of us are making conjuctures. some of us are intelligent, some long time observers, some are self created experts, some are simply limelight seekers, some are commercial opportunists and some simply copy cats. The analytical minded would collect data and do statistical analysis; others more creatively oriented would do objective/subjective and often emotional introspection. Most of us are a mix of all these.

Want advice - dime a dozen

Its like the stock market analysis - every expert worth his/her salt has one and writes with confidence. If you look at all them closely - the sum total is that someone or the other has written about every possibility that exists. So at least some of us will always be accurate. The problem is that none (and I mean, "none") of us have been consistently accurate.

The more sensible out of us (or lets say the smart ones out of us) will offer a broad range of score/attempts which then is useless analysis because one or two questions in CAT will affect your rank by may be thousands.

So what am I saying
There is no sure of way finding out whether you are getting a call and no expert can predict it with any accuracy. In a few weeks you would anyway know - so why create a fuss and feel either ecstatic or dejected - both of which as I said earlier are irrational reactions.

The fact is that every year -

• some of the most hopefuls DO NOT get a call
• some of the most unnoticed GET the calls
• some of the hopefuls GET the calls
• some of the unnoticed DO NOT get the calls

What all these means is that none of us are able to conclusively seperate all the wheat from the chaff.

Don't believe it? OK !! Go ahead and read "The Mess Behind CAT Analysis" that I posted on my personal blog way back in Feb 2007. This was the year when for the first time the IIMs published the answer key of CAT 2006 on their official sites. In one stroke all so called "experts" on CAT were proven to be amateur marketers hungry for eyeballs of their prospective customers. 

In nut shell then I conclude,

• you do not know that you are getting a call and
• you also do not know that you are NOT getting a call

What I know for sure is that you should discard all this analysis and keep working with the same enthusiasm and sincerity as you have been doing till now. We surely do not want to be caught napping when the call eventualy and actually arrives.

Another of my friend and colleague Abbas texted on facebook today

"For some people CAT is over, for many, everything"

and I instinctively responded

"For winners CAT is generally the start"

Ohh!! I ned to remain focussed.



While I responded as an instinct - I now believe it was deep. Yes starting CAT the two months following it are crucial last miles for a really sincere CAT aspirant. It requires self drive to continue. It requires an ability to avoid the mob behaviour (phobia, mania and tirades) and focus on next set of goals. It requires keeping faith in once sincere efforts and to go on without getting affected by half baked analysis. It requires Arjuna's focus on "karma" without worrying about the results.



So friends, its time you get over the ecstacy and/or dejection and simply focus on your next step.

Easier said than done?? Agreed. But did I ever tell you that it would be easy? Wish you all bright future and great success.

P.S.

1. Do let me know what you think about all this. Your queries, feedback and suggestions are welcome. Just click on comment and enter your comments. Feel free to follow this blog by clicking the follow button at the right side panel.

2. I interrupted my series of posts on "GDs & PIs at this time??" for this post. The series continues - stay tunes. :) .